The purpose of this experiment was to answer the question
“How much seasonal storage is required in Ontario to carry a GSHP (Ground Sourced Heat Pump) home through the heating months with power supplied exclusively from solar PV?”
This experiment was run between 2023Nov1 and 2024May1. The setup consists of:
Homestead 1: electrical load data dominated by a Ground Source Heat Pump (GSHP)
Homestead 2: solar PV data from 16kW solar array
Both homesteads are in the same geographic area (~10km apart) in rural southern Ontario.
Although this experiment is very focused on one single home, the results can be extrapolated in a straightforward manner to answer a related question
“How much seasonal solar PV storage would be required if all 3 million single family homes in Ontario were heated with GSHP systems?”
We have to be cautious when taking extrapolation too far, because Ontario is a large geographic area encompassing many climate zones. That said the bulk of population (hence housing) is in the greater Toronto area of southern Ontario where this experimental data derives from.